Health of the U.S.
Long-Haul to Last-Mile Commercial Transportation Insights
Q4 2025 - Q2 2026
HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
About this report
Geotab’s Health of the U.S. Supply Chain Report is a new analysis of commercial vehicle movement across the nation built entirely on proprietary, anonymized telematics data from one of the world’s largest connected vehicle fleets. The result is a real-world analysis of U.S. supply chain health, one that surfaces early signals of economic change months before they appear in official data. Published semi-annually, this report is designed to serve as a resource for media, logistics leaders, government agencies and anyone who needs to understand where the economy is headed by watching how goods actually move.
Contents
By analyzing 12% of all U.S. commercial traffic, our report offers a unique view of freight movement across key U.S. cities and corridors. At a time of significant change and economic pressures, having real-world supply chain data helps organizations better understand the challenges facing their operations. Our insights capture current trends and provide logistics leaders with the timely visibility needed to optimize capacity, refine route planning and make proactive, data-driven decisions.”
Altitude by Geotab was built to turn aggregate fleet insights into decisions. With this report, we’re applying that capability to the supply chain at scale, giving logistics leaders, policymakers and planners the kind of real- world, ground-level insight that simply hasn’t existed before. The intelligence was always there in the movement of trucks across America. Now it’s working for the people who need it most.”
Mike Branch VP, Data and Analytics, Geotab
Nathaniel Veeh AVP, Business Development, Altitude by Geotab
HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
HUB-AND-SPOKE capacity shrank
Key Signals
Three significant disruptions hit the U.S. supply chain between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026: new tariff policies, geopolitical shipping disruptions and persistent freight driver shortages. Yet comprehensive data from commercial vehicle travel shows the supply chain shifted and adapted instead of stalling out. During this period, our supply network actually drove more freight activity using its existing resources. But increased efficiency created a new risk: Any rise in demand could trigger higher pricing and other pressures for a system that’s closing in on capacity limits. Freight metrics matter because trucks move 72% of the nation’s total supply chain value and 65% of its tonnage, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics . And truck movements happen weeks or months before invoices and macroeconomic cost data, so freight transportation shows subtle supply chain shifts before they present elsewhere. Our analysis establishes indexed values capturing real-world freight activity for supply chain insights.
Trip and VMT measures remained below the Q4 2025 baseline, but truck workday numbers hit record highs. The network responded to demand with more efficiency instead of adding capacity.
LONG-HAUL held steady
LAST-MILE optimized
Trip volume rose across the four cities we studied, but miles per trip dropped, as did this vehicle share of all commercial traffic. More deliveries, shorter routes and fewer vehicles indicate greater efficiencies.
The number of trips and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) both rose slightly from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, indicating that the supply chain’s freight backbone is stable.
REGIONAL saw the highest growth
DRAYAGE activity shifted
More trips and VMT show more demand for regional trucking, perhaps shifting inventory closer to storage warehouses and retailers.
San Pedro Bay container volume rose while truck activity fell during the three quarters, suggesting that rail took up the slack. Port throughput may no longer serve as a proxy for drayage demand.
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Trucks tell the story
Drayage is the supply chain’s first inland step. These trucks move containers on short trips from ships to nearby rail yards, warehouses and distribution centers. Unlike the other four vocations, which are defined by driving distance and stop frequency, drayage is defined by port truck activity. Rail yards
From raw materials feeding factories to finished products brightening a customer’s doorstep, delivery trucks carry the weight of our economy. We analyzed five different types of commercial vehicle travel that correspond to supply chain movement. Geotab has sensors in over six million commercial vehicles generating 100 billion data points per day and capturing approximately 12% of all commercial vehicle travel in the U.S. “Commercial vehicles” in our study means all Geotab-enabled trucks, vans and cars that are classified into four key vocations: Long-Haul, Regional, Hub-and-Spoke and Door-to-Door.
Port
Warehouses
Click on each vocation for its supply chain connection.
Distribution centers
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Mapping the supply chain journey
I-35
New York
I-80/90
We studied movement across four busy U.S. interstate corridors and four representative cities. A high percentage of Geotab’s fleet travels these corridors:
Denver
Los Angeles
I-95
Atlanta
I-10
74% of Long-Haul trucks and 36% of miles
41% of Regional trucks and 18% of miles
29% of Hub-and-Spoke trucks and 15% of miles
The cities were chosen to represent four geographically distinct regions — west coast, northeast, south and midwest — with two cities that lead in retail volume. Across our cities, Door-to-Door travel represents 14-61% of commercial vehicles and 26-78% of commercial mileage.
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Drayage Activity Index*
110
Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
105
100
95
Uncoupling container volume Drayage:
Los Angeles & Long Beach
New York & New Jersey
Combined ports
*See Methodology for index definitions
Drayage insights Our drayage index stayed essentially flat across the study period, but Los Angeles/Long Beach reported their strongest month of 2026 (up ~12% from a year earlier). This contrast points to rail absorbing the growth. New York’s drayage remained more aligned, but it’s a truck-centric operation, with port-reported rail activity only about a third of San Pedro Bay.
Port truck trip volume slipped about 1% in San Pedro Bay while at the same time the port reported a 2% rise in official volumes per working day. At New York and New Jersey, drayage aligned more with container statistics. Across Q4 2025–Q2 2026 we analyzed an average 254,000 port entries per quarter for both ports.
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Long-Haul Journeys and Vehicle Miles Traveled
Long Haul: Holding steady
+0.7%
Q2 2026
+0.4%
+0.7%
Q1 2026
-0.1%
Long-Haul activity remained stable with slight increases over three quarters. We measured more than 1.2 million Long-Haul journeys per quarter by chaining together the “trips” drivers make (an average of 10, each ended by a refueling or rest stop) before taking their mandated 10-hour rest period.
Q4 2025
0
99
99.5
100
100.5
101
101.5
102
Journey volume index
VMT index
Percentage change
Long-Haul Travel Distances
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
8.60 Median journey hours
8.66 Median journey hours
8.71 Median journey hours
Median mileage per journey
8.60 Median journey hours
8.66 Median journey hours
8.71 Median journey hours
Median mileage per journey
Percentage change
+1.5%
-0.3%
Percentage change
+1.5%
-0.3%
6
HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Long-Haul Utilization Rates
73.8%
Q2 2026
1.2 journeys
63 days
73.8%
Q1 2026
million
61 days
73%
Q4 2025
Long-Haul insights Long-Haul activity trended steady to rising. These trucks are the supply chain’s lifeline, carrying the most freight volume and value, so their movements are the clearest single barometer of the goods economy. The flat-to-slightly-positive reading here shows stability at the supply chain’s core.
64 days
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Regional Trips and Vehicle Miles Traveled
Regional: More trips and miles
105.5
+2.8%
105
104.5
Regional trip volume and mileage rose more than any other classification. Regional VMT and drive time also grew, while utilization (measure of active workdays) held steady. Our analysis studied about a million Regional trips per quarter, each trip as engine-on to engine-off or a stop of longer than 200 seconds.
+2.3%
104
103.5
103
+2.4%
102.5
102
+1.5%
101.5
101
100.5
3.8%
100
99.5
growth trip
99
Q1 2026
Q4 2025
Q2 2026
VMT index
Trip volume index
Percentage change
8
Median mileage per trip
HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Percentage change
Regional Utilization Rates
Regional Travel Distances
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
74.7%
+0.1%
+1.6%
Q2 2026
1.86 Median trip hours
1.88 Median trip hours
1.90 Median trip hours
63 days
Median mileage per trip
74.4%
Q1 2026
Percentage change
Median mileage per trip
Percentage change
61 days
+0.1%
+1.6%
Regional insights Regional trucks handled more volume per workday. Steady utilization rates alongside longer drive times and more trips indicates that existing trucks met increasing demand by extending routes and workdays. Regional activity outpacing Long-Haul suggests that movement of goods became more concentrated near end markets, and/or transferred to rail. 1.90 Median trip hours +0.1% 1.88 Median trip hours 1.90 Median trip hours
74.4%
1.86 Median trip hours
Q4 2025
.6%
1.88 Median trip hours
64 days
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Hub-and-Spoke Trips and Vehicle Miles Traveled
Hub-and-Spoke: Growing utilization
+0.6%
Q2 2026
+0.9%
-4.8%
Q1 2026
-3.8%
Baseline utilization rates for Hub-and-Spoke started at the highest of all truck groups, and grew during the study period with dynamic fluctuations in trip volume and VMT. Our analysis covered about 200,000 trips per quarter for Hub-and-Spoke trucks.
Q4 2025
0
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
VMT index
Trip volume index
Percentage change
Hub-and-Spoke Travel Distances
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
1.6 Median trip hours
1.6 Median trip hours
1.6 Median trip hours
Median mileage per journey
1.6 Median trip hours
1.6 Median trip hours
1.6 Median trip hours
Median mileage per journey
Percentage change
-0.1%
-1.1%
8
8
8
Percentage change
-0.1%
10
-1.1%
8
8
8
HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Hub-and-Spoke Utilization Rates
84.3%
Q2 2026
utilization 84.3 %
63 days
83.3%
Q1 2026
61 days
Hub-and-Spoke insights These trucks operated more efficiently each quarter. Because Hub-and-Spoke networks support retail and home-delivery distribution, a classic post-holiday shopping dip from Q4 to Q1 with a Q2 recovery fits with a normal consumer shopping cycle. From Q1 to Q2, Hub-and-Spoke operators extracted more from their existing assets by extending trip volume, VMT and utilization rates. Further demand would likely require added capacity.
80.3%
Q4 2025
64 days
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Although each city has its own idiosyncrasies which cautions us against making comparisons or drawing overall conclusions, our analysis showed growth in trip volume for all four cities (all but New York in double digits).
Door-to-Door: More trips per city
A correspondingly universal drop in miles per trip from Q1 2026 to Q2 2026 suggests an overall focus on efficiency by adjusting routes instead of just piling on more deliveries.
ATLANTA
DENVER
LOS ANGELES NEW YORK
SOLID GROWTH
ROOM TO EXPAND
FLUCTUATING TRENDS
NAILED DOWN
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Solid growth in Atlanta Atlanta’s trip volume grew by almost 25% while average trip mileage grew in Q1, then dropped in Q2, suggesting that higher trip efficiencies met growing demand. Atlanta grew vehicle share and added more short stops to routes instead of simply driving more, and the overall vehicle utilization rates were the highest in our study. We analyzed an average of more than 1.5 million Door-to-Door trips and about 10,000 unique vehicles per quarter in Atlanta.
Atlanta Door-to-Door Utilization Rates
Q2 2026
72.8%
63 days
Atlanta Door-to-Door Trips and Miles Traveled
Q1 2026
10
140
-14.3%
72.5%
1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8
+8.3%
120
100
61 days
80
60
Q4 2025
+4.3%
+24.5%
40
69.1%
20
64 days
0
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Percentage change
Trip volume index (left axis)
Average miles per trip (right axis)
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Atlanta Share of Commercial Travel
50
Room to expand in Denver A consistent rise in trip volume with lower overall trip mileage meant shorter trips and more stops per vehicle. Denver was the only city with shorter trips in both Q1 and Q2. This plus continual drops in Door-to-Door’s share of all commercial traffic and low utilization rates reveal room for growth if trip numbers continue to climb. Door-to-Door travel in Denver comprised about 1.4M trips per quarter and nearly 5,000 unique vehicles.
+3.6%
+10.3%
45
40
35
30
+6.9%
-1.1%
25
20
Denver Door-to-Door Trips and Miles Traveled
15
10
140
10
1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8
120
-6.7%
5
100
-19.7%
0
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
80
Percentage change
Vehicle share
Miles share
60
+12.1%
+13.4%
40
Of all Long-Haul, Regional, Hub-and-Spoke and Door-to-Door travel in the city zone
20
+24.5% trip volume
0
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Percentage change
Trip volume index (left axis)
Average miles per trip (right axis)
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Denver Door-to-Door Utilization Rates
Denver Share of Commercial Travel
35
Q2 2026
-13.4%
30
69.5%
-8%
25
63 days
20
-10.5%
-10.6%
15
10
Q1 2026
66.3%
5
0
61 days
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Miles share
Vehicle share
Percentage change
Q4 2025
Of all Long-Haul, Regional, Hub-and-Spoke and Door-to-Door travel in the city zone
67.7%
12.2% vehicle share
64 days
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Fluctuations in Los Angeles Los Angeles was the city with the biggest rise in trip number, and it had high vehicle utilization rates. But fluctuating trip lengths and drops in vehicle share hint at opportunities to optimize. One surprise: For a spread-out city, LA’s distance per trip was on par with New York’s — both shorter than our other cities. Our analysis of Los Angeles covered almost 15,000 unique vehicles per quarter with over 7.5M quarterly Door-to-Door trips.
Los Angeles Door-to-Door Utilization Rates
Q2 2026
72.5%
63 days
Los Angeles Door-to-Door Trips and Miles Traveled
Q1 2026
10
140
73.7%
1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8
120
61 days
100
+2.2%
-9.2%
80
60
Q4 2025
+20.1%
+16.1%
40
69.8%
20
64 days
0
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Percentage change
Trip volume index (left axis)
Average miles per trip (right axis)
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Los Angeles Share of Commercial Travel
Nailed down in New York With nearly half of its commercial vehicles classified as Door-to-Door, New York has the highest vehicle share of our cities for this category, likely due to its tight geography and density. The only city with single digit changes in all metrics, the city appeared to be operating at near-peak optimization and perhaps at its limits for last-mile activity. New York’s analysis captured 22,000 unique vehicles per quarter and nearly 7M quarterly Door-to-Door trips.
50
45
+3.6%
+10.3%
40
35
30
25
+6.9%
-1.1%
20
New York Door-to-Door Trips and Miles Traveled
15
10
10
140
1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8
5
120
100
0
+5.1%
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
-8.8%
80
Percentage change
Miles share
Vehicle share
60
+0.8%
+3.6%
40
Of all Long-Haul, Regional, Hub-and-Spoke and Door-to-Door travel in the city zone
20
usage rate 72.5%
0
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Percentage change
Trip volume index (left axis)
Average miles per trip (right axis)
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
New York Door-to-Door Utilization Rates
New York Share of Commercial Travel
0.3%
50 45 40 35 15 20 25 30 10 60 65 70 55
-2.1%
Q2 2026
3.9%
70.3%
-5.9%
63 days
Q1 2026
68.3%
5 0
61 days
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Miles share
Vehicle share
Percentage change
Q4 2025
Of all Long-Haul, Regional, Hub-and-Spoke and Door-to-Door travel in the city zone
70%
64 days
Cities insights Overall, more Door-to-Door trips on shorter routes translates into increasingly dense last-mile activity in our cities. This optimization signals a productivity gain since carriers typically can make more deliveries without a proportional cost increase. Lower cost-per-delivery can drive higher margins while higher productivity-per-driver mitigates driver shortages. A growing number of stops will demand more curb-management planning.
+48%
vehicle share
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
About Geotab Geotab is a global leader in connected operations, video telematics and AI-powered insights. Trust- ed by more than 100,000 customers — from small and mid-size fleets to Fortune 500 enterprises and public-sector organizations, including the U.S. federal government — Geotab connects approx - imately six million vehicles and assets and processes 100 billion data points daily. With ISO/IEC 27001:2022, SOC2, FIPS 140-3 and FedRAMP authorizations, Geotab’s open platform and partner ecosystem unify safety, compliance and operations in a unified system. Our mission: a safer, more efficient and more sustainable world in motion. Visit us at geotab.com.
Geotab’s indicators illustrate a supply network that moved more volume without requiring more capacity. Over the past three quarters, redistribution is what drove stability while freight activity and capacity diverged at several points. Either capacity held flat or shrank while activity grew, or vehicle utilization rose while actual trip volume didn’t. The Long-Haul backbone held steady, while growth and optimization moved downstream. Some drayage shifted to rail. Regional activity grew, Hub-and-Spoke reached record utilization and Door-to-Door densified by making more, shorter trips. Together, these signals argue for a resilient supply chain responding to growing demand with smarter optimization instead of added capacity. Optimization replaced capacity
About Altitude by Geotab
Altitude by GeotabTM, a line of business within Geotab, is a leading provider of advanced mobility insights and solutions for public and commercial sectors across North America. Headquartered in Oakville, Ontario and Atlanta, Georgia, we leverage our expertise in data analytics to help decision- makers gain a comprehensive understanding of road network movements. By delivering reliable and contextualized insights, we enable improved planning capabilities and better financial outcomes, while maintaining data confidentiality and privacy. Our solutions drive safer, more efficient and more sustainable mobility throughout North America. Learn more at altitude.geotab.com .
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
This report is a joint publication of Geotab and Altitude by Geotab. The analysis and methodology were developed by Altitude by Geotab, drawing on commercial telematics data from Geotab’s global fleet network analyzed by Altitude by Geotab. The data covers three consecutive quarters of U.S. commercial vehicle activity: Q4 2025 (October–December 2025), Q1 2026 (January–March 2026), and Q2 2026 (April–June 2026). Quarter-over-quarter comparisons are sequential (Q4 to Q1 to Q2), with Q4 2025 as the fixed index baseline (= 100). The metrics combine three analyses: a corridor view of Heavy-Duty truck activity, a city view of Door-to-Door delivery activity and a drayage view of port truck activity. Each vehicle is assigned a vocation — Long-Haul, Regional, Hub-and-Spoke or Door-to-Door — based on its observed driving patterns. Learn more about our vocational classifications in Altitude by Geotab’s white paper
Methodology
• Corridor qualification. A journey is counted only if at least one of its trips runs more than one mile on one of the four corridors. • Distance. Journey distance is the total miles driven from first departure to final stop, including all roads, not just the highway portion. Journeys are kept only when total distance falls between 50 and 1,000 miles; shorter runs are local traffic and longer runs are treated as outliers. • Duration and speed. Duration counts only actual driving time (engine-on hours). Estimated speed is median journey miles divided by median journey hours. The trip/journey volume index and the vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) index express per-vehicle-per-active-day rates with baseline Q4 2025 set to 100.
Normalizing activity: per vehicle per active day For all analyses, activity is normalized per vehicle per active day rather than by raw totals, so the metric reflects how individual vehicles are used rather than how many vehicles Geotab has onboarded. An active day is any working day on which a vehicle drove at least one qualifying trip anywhere in the U.S., on a corridor or not. Working days are weekdays (Monday–Friday) excluding U.S. federal holidays, giving 64 working days in Q4 2025, 61 in Q1 2026, and 63 in Q2 2026.
Corridor index Corridor metrics cover Class 7 and Class 8 trucks on four major U.S. interstate corridors — I-10: a southern east-west route, I-35: a central north-south route, I-80/90: a central east-west route, and I-95: an eastern north-south route — analyzed as a single combined network. • Trips and journeys. A trip is defined as the driving activity that occurs between two boundary events: an engine on/off event or the vehicle being in park for 200 seconds or longer. For Regional and Hub-and-Spoke trucks, each trip is treated as one journey. For Long-Haul trucks, consecutive trips by the same truck are chained into a single journey; a rest of more than 10 hours or the end of the quarter starts a new journey.
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HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
Drayage index The drayage activity index measures weekday truck entries at the San Pedro Bay Ports (Los Angeles and Long Beach) and the Port of New York and New Jersey (Port Newark- Elizabeth, Port Liberty Bayonne and Howland Hook Marine Terminal, treated as one combined zone), normalized against the local trucking population. An entry is counted as a weekday truck-trip that starts outside and ends inside the port zone. The fleet base, which is used for normalization, is the count of distinct trucks with at least one trip ending in the port’s home or surrounding counties. The index itself is entries per working day per 1,000 fleet-base trucks, indexed to baseline Q4 2025 = 100. City analysis City metrics cover Door-to-Door delivery vehicles, vans, small trucks, and cars, operating inside four representative cities, each defined by its municipal boundary. • Trip inclusion. A trip is counted if its origin or destination falls inside the city. • Distance filter. Only trips longer than 0.1 miles are included. Penetration Penetration is defined differently for the two analyses. • Corridor penetration answers what share of Geotab’s fleet used these corridors. VMT % is the corridor-linked journey mileage divided by the mileage for all trucks of the same vocation anywhere in the U.S.; Vehicle % is the
limits. Weekend activity is excluded because the vocations studied operate predominantly on weekdays. These insights are based on aggregate historical data and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute, and should not be relied upon as, economic, operational, or business advice.
count of distinct trucks that ran at least one qualifying corridor journey divided by all trucks of that vocation that ran a qualifying journey anywhere in the U.S. The 50–1,000 mile cap is applied identically to both sides of each ratio. • City penetration answers what share of a city’s tracked commercial vehicle activity is Door-to-Door. Miles Share % is Door-to-Door trip miles inside the city divided by trip miles for all classified vocations combined inside the city; Vehicle share % is distinct Door-to-Door vehicles divided by all Geotab classified vehicles in the city. Why median for corridors and average for cities Corridor journey distances are bounded (capped at 50–1,000 miles) and roughly symmetric, so the median gives a stable, representative picture of a typical freight run and underpins the estimated-speed calculation. City Door-to-Door trips are highly skewed because there are so many very short trips that the median understates real activity. We therefore report the average for cities, which reflects total delivery mileage and aligns with the mileage-based penetration figures. Coverage and limitations Geotab’s network represents vehicles enrolled on its platform, a large, representative sample of U.S. commercial activity, not a census. Vocation assignments are model- based and may not perfectly match every vehicle’s business purpose. Cross-boundary trips are included by design, so city mileage includes some distance driven outside the city
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