HEALTH OF THE U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN
HUB-AND-SPOKE capacity shrank
Key Signals
Three significant disruptions hit the U.S. supply chain between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026: new tariff policies, geopolitical shipping disruptions and persistent freight driver shortages. Yet comprehensive data from commercial vehicle travel shows the supply chain shifted and adapted instead of stalling out. During this period, our supply network actually drove more freight activity using its existing resources. But increased efficiency created a new risk: Any rise in demand could trigger higher pricing and other pressures for a system that’s closing in on capacity limits. Freight metrics matter because trucks move 72% of the nation’s total supply chain value and 65% of its tonnage, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics . And truck movements happen weeks or months before invoices and macroeconomic cost data, so freight transportation shows subtle supply chain shifts before they present elsewhere. Our analysis establishes indexed values capturing real-world freight activity for supply chain insights.
Trip and VMT measures remained below the Q4 2025 baseline, but truck workday numbers hit record highs. The network responded to demand with more efficiency instead of adding capacity.
LONG-HAUL held steady
LAST-MILE optimized
Trip volume rose across the four cities we studied, but miles per trip dropped, as did this vehicle share of all commercial traffic. More deliveries, shorter routes and fewer vehicles indicate greater efficiencies.
The number of trips and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) both rose slightly from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, indicating that the supply chain’s freight backbone is stable.
REGIONAL saw the highest growth
DRAYAGE activity shifted
More trips and VMT show more demand for regional trucking, perhaps shifting inventory closer to storage warehouses and retailers.
San Pedro Bay container volume rose while truck activity fell during the three quarters, suggesting that rail took up the slack. Port throughput may no longer serve as a proxy for drayage demand.
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